The biggest threat is the slowdown in mutual trade between Kazakhstan and Russia, as Russian imports may become less if Russia will be completely disconnected from SWIFT.
The trade turnover between the two countries by the end of 2021 promises to amount to $ 23 billion. Also, investments in 2021 were expected at the level of 43 billion dollars. When SWIFT is disabled, the payments might not pass and the trade turnover between the two countries will slow down.
Source: Republic of Kazakhstan Agency of Statistics
There is a possibility that Kazakhstan will become a crossing point for sending Russian goods abroad and the local market will be flooded with cheap imports, but not everyone will take such a risk.
In the event of complete disconnection from SWIFT, we expect that Kazakhstan will be overwhelmed with cheap Russian imports and there will be shell companies that export Russian goods under the guise of Kazakhstani goods.